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It is only natural for a person new to thoroughbred
racing to assume that the best horse will win the race.
Deciding which horse that might be doesn't seem like too
difficult a task. The program is loaded with information
to assist them in making that decision. The problem is
that while the best horse may win, more often it is
another who gets his picture taken in the winner's
circle. Were it otherwise Triple Crown winners (Kentucky
Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes) would be common
rather than being an almost extinct species.
There are
many reasons for this phenomena. They have to do with
form, tactics, and other matters that those new to
racing don't need to understand in order to have a fun
day at the races and having fun is the most important
thing. Of course, collecting money is much more fun than
tearing up tickets so betting a few winners would be
very nice. As long as we don't get to greedy that really
isn't very difficult.
The first
thing that we need to do is admit that we don't know
enough about the mysterious "art form" called
handicapping to try to decide which horse to bet on our
own. We need help, and fortunately help is available in
terms of the "tote board". The "win" odds it displays
for each horse are based upon how much money has been
bet on them. As such, it represents the weighted hopes
and fears of all those playing the race. Since they are
more experienced than us, the "tote board" is a logical
pace to find the help we need.
We could
just let the "tote board" do our handicapping and bet
the favorite in every race. In all likelihood that would
let us cash some tickets. The favorite is usually the
most likely horse to win, it does make mistakes. After
all, the favorite only wins about 35% of the races. Not
all of the losers can be chalked up to legitimate
excuses such as bad racing luck. A good plan for those
who are new to racing is to back the favorites who
deserve to be favored and avoid those who are suspected
of being mistakes.
Simple Handicapping Rules
This can
be accomplished by following a few simple rules. Back
the favorite unless:
1. His
jockey hasn't won at least 8-10% of his or her races
(overall - not just at the current meet.) We want a
capable rider but not necessarily the meet's top rider.
The horse's trainer should pass the same test.
2. The
race's distance isn't within a sixteenth-of-a-mile (one
furlong) of being the same as the distance of the
horse's previous race, or a distance at which the horse
recently won (or almost won.)
3. The
horse's last race was more than 35 days ago.
4. The
jockey isn't the same fellow who rode the horse in his
last race unless the trainer is switching to a jockey
who won (or nearly won) aboard the horse in the past.
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